Реферат: Европейская денежная система
However, the monetary strategy avoids putting too much weight on one area or type of information. This is only partly for statistical reasons. The formation of the euro area is a substantial structural change, which may in time affect monetary and financial relationships. So the ECB also examines a range of economic data for the light they shed on the assessment of the economic situation and, in particular, prospects for inflation. The editorial and economic developments sections of the Monetary Bulletin show the way the ECB draws on this information; the statistical information itself is set out in tables in the statistical section. Thus, in addition to money and credit and the HICP, the editorial typically touches on GDP, industrial output, capacity utilisation, orders, the labour market, business and consumer confidence, costs and prices other than the HICP, earnings and wage settlements, fiscal positions - naturally placing the emphasis on what are judged to be the most important developments at the time. All these areas were covered by the statement of requirements made in 1996.
I do not need to say that, at present, an accurate assessment of the economic situation in the euro area is of vital importance. The editorial section of the March Bulletin concludes that the overall outlook for price stability remains favourable, with no major risk that HICP inflation will exceed 2% in the near future, but there is nevertheless a balance of conflicting influences. To reach this judgement, the Bulletin assesses the latest GDP data (slower growth in the provisional Eurostat figures for GDP in the 4th quarter of 1998; declining manufacturing output), the labour market (unemployment falling slightly; some signs of rising pay settlements), and confidence indicated by opinion surveys (business confidence weak; the consumer mood rather optimistic). The economic developments section supports the overall conclusion, and analyses in more detail price and cost developments and of output, demand and the labour market. It concludes with analysis of the fiscal position in the euro area in 1998, and a preview based on fiscal plans for 1999. I am drawing your attention to this to show the variety of material supporting the ECB's assessment of the economic and financial position and prospects. Although we pay particular attention to certain items - the monetary statistics, with an emphasis this time on influences contributing to recent faster growth, and to the rather rapid growth of credit, and the HICP - we draw on a wide range of information in a continuous monitoring exercise. The establishment of an institution responsible for monetary policy in the euro area has caused a fundamental change in the use of macroeconomic statistics at European level, very much as anticipated by the Implementation Package nearly 3 years ago.
Priorities for further improvement of statistics
I would like to take this opportunity to thank Eurostat for their efforts to improve the quality and comparability of economic statistics relating to the euro area, and to deliver them to the ECB on a timely manner. They have given this high priority and much progress has been made in the last year or so. Further improvement will come with the introduction of the new European System of Accounts [ESA95] starting next month (although we must expect some temporary confusion following the introduction of a new system). Experience suggests that substantial statistical changes initially bring classification problems. Although, of course, provision has been made for back data to be available on the closest possible approximation to the new basis, we must also expect some discontinuity in important series. Implementation of last year's short-term Statistics Regulation will bring improvements across a wide range of conjunctural statistics not covered by ESA95. There are also initiatives to improve labour market statistics. With Eurostat, who are responsible for all these areas of statistics at European level, we do our best in the ECB to promote better data. Perhaps I should underline our support here for the priorities established last year by a working group of the Monetary Committee (the current Economic and Financial Committee), in which Yves Franchet and two of my ECB colleagues participated (Peter Bull and Gert Jan Hogeweg): in addition to quarterly GDP and short-term conjunctural statistics, these were government finance statistics, data relating to the labour market (including labour costs), and the balance of payments. At present the lack of comparable national statistics during the course of the year makes it difficult to monitor the fiscal stance in the area as a whole, and so to assess the balance of fiscal and monetary policy. Better labour market statistics are important, not only for the ECB's assessment of possible inflationary pressure, but also to improve understanding of the structure of labour markets in our countries, and the rigidities which impede the achievement of fuller employment. Balance of payments statistics - a shared responsibility of the ECB and Eurostat at European level - require a new approach in compiling data for the euro area as a whole. We intend to publish the first monthly data for the euro area following the new methodology next month, and to begin joint publication of a quarterly euro-area balance of payments with Eurostat in the summer. But there are deeper questions about future needs for balance of payments statistics in the new circumstances which are currently being addressed. Principally, the question arises of the usefulness for policy purposes of national balance of payments statistics for Member States participating in Monetary Union. There is no question, of course, that certain data in this area are needed within the ESA95 framework of national and financial accounts.
The organisational, legal and technical infrastructure
I have talked mainly about statistical requirements and their provision, but this is only part of the story. The Treaty (specifically in Article 5 of the Statute of the ESCB and the ECB) clearly envisaged that the ECB would perform statistical functions, assisted by and in co-operation with national central banks, other national authorities, the Commission (meaning in this context in particular Eurostat), and international organisations. A large part of the preparatory work carried out by the EMI consisted of sorting out who would do what, avoiding so far as possible duplication, wasted effort and conflicting data, and keeping the whole development consistent with international statistical conventions. Much of this had to be framed in legal instruments, which would complete the statutory framework provided by the Treaty and the ESCB/ECB Statute. Although work on an EU Council Regulation concerning ECB statistics began as early as 1996, the Regulation could not be finalised until last autumn and the ECB could not adopt legal instruments on statistics in advance of that event - much work in this area therefore had to be done at the last minute.
Information Technology is another of my responsibilities at the ECB. I am glad to say that essential elements of our data transfer and statistical processing systems were in place when I arrived, or brought into operation soon afterwards. But here, too, there is room for further improvement - the EMI and the ECB in these early months have had so much to do in relation to the resources available that, broadly speaking, only the essentials have been provided so far.
Conclusion
"Nothing is more important for monetary policy than good statistics." The formation of Monetary Union has shifted the focus of interest on to data covering the euro area as a whole. This has required substantial changes to statistics, which need time to settle down and are some way short of completion. At the same time, the adoption of the single currency is itself a massive structural change. This will surely affect economic and financial relationships and make any data harder to interpret, although these deeper effects may occur over a period and take some time to become apparent. What is clear, however, is that the ECB must take policy decisions and explain them publicly in terms of the data available relating to its policy responsibility. What we continue to strive to do, through our own efforts and with the help of Eurostat, is to improve the quality of the data underlying policy decisions, which are so important in gaining public understanding and acceptance for them.
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The tasks and limitations of monetary policy
Speech delivered by Christian Noyer
Vice-President of the European Central Bank,
at the Volkswirtschaftliche Tagung of the Oesterreichische
Nationalbank,
on 10 June 1999 in Vienna
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is a pleasure for me to be here in Vienna today and I should like to start by thanking the conference organisers for giving me the opportunity to elaborate on the tasks and limitations of monetary policy.
This topic is extremely important. Looking back over the history of economic thought, it is clear that the perception of what monetary policy can do and what it cannot or should not do has changed. This has clearly shaped the role of monetary policy in economic policy. In the 1960s economic theories suggested a long-run trade-off between inflation and output. These theories provided the intellectual basis for policy-makers to pursue monetary policies biased towards higher inflation. The high inflation experience of the 1970s together with new theoretical findings, especially on the role of expectations, led policy-makers to move towards lowering and stabilising inflation.
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