Реферат: Европейская денежная система
The ECB, then, must prioritise those of its activities which promote the objective of stability and, without prejudice to this approach, it will contribute, indirectly and to the extent possible, to economic growth and increased employment.
Is this approach in any way contradictory? Absolutely not. The best contribution the ECB can make to promoting investment and thus to generating economic growth and increased employment is precisely by providing a framework for price stabilisation. The worst path that the ECB could follow would be to implement a lax economic policy which claimed to be directly creating jobs.
In fact, in the medium term price stability will encourage efficient investment, sustainable growth and employment. This is because stability prevents price distortions, that is to say any distortion of the mechanism which guides decision-makers in the markets, and thus favours an improved allocation of resources. When stability is achieved, prices are more transparent, which promotes competition and therefore efficiency.
Moreover, if economic agents have positive expectations with regard to stability, the risk premium element of long-term of interest rates will fall, promoting investment and lasting consumption. In this respect, it should be remembered that one of the clearest inflation forecast indicators is an increasingly steep maturity-related asset yield curve.
Finally, stability promotes growth and employment insofar as it allows resources to be channelled into productive activity. Inflation, on the other hand, merely encourages speculative investment with the aim of safeguarding funds against monetary deterioration.
As we saw earlier, the aims set out in Article 2 of the Maastricht Treaty also include social safeguards. In this context, therefore, it can be said that inflation is the most unjust of all taxes, because it attacks personal income and assets while distorting certain public redistribution mechanisms such as, for instance, progressive taxation scales.
In other words, stability is not just important for economic efficiency but also for social justice, since it provides economic conditions which benefit the weakest and most vulnerable members of society.
An appropriate ECB monetary policy is a necessary condition but will not, in itself, enable us to achieve stability. National taxation policies geared to satisfying the objectives of the Stability and Growth Pact, together with several supply-side policies leaning towards liberalisation and flexibility, are also necessary to enable us to avoid the persistent need for measures to combat inflation.
We must avoid the temptation to reinterpret the Stability and Growth Pact by introducing "golden rules" of dubious legality, based on the false theoretical foundations of the so-called "ultra-rationality hypothesis" which, in the past, claimed to justify increased taxation pressure and which now calls for increased public spending in terms of investment. Let's not beat about the bush: taxation policy has only one golden rule, which consists in maintaining a long-term budgetary balance on the economic horizon.
In connection with the ECB's objectives, it should also be noted that it is difficult or even impossible to meet two separate targets simultaneously using only a single monetary policy. This applies when dealing with the concept of fixing fluctuation bands for the rate of exchange between the euro and the US dollar. In this case, the exchange rate objective could conflict with the price stability concept and the ECB would then fail in its primary objective. We must not forget, with regard to this issue, that combining linked exchange rates, the free circulation of capital and monetary autonomy is not, to be quite blunt, sustainable. It is precisely this which is the raison d'кtre of the ECB as the single monetary authority in an economic area which has irrevocably fixed exchange rates (a single currency) and freely circulating capital (a single market).
To conclude this section, let me stress that it is essential for the ECB to make it absolutely clear that its main objective is stability. If, as some would suggest (for instance in the Modigliani manifesto), the ECB were to directly target employment, this would adversely affect the credibility of its monetary policy and thus have an impact not only on inflation but also, paradoxically, on employment. The direct targeting of employment objectives by a central bank is counterproductive.
The ECB's monetary policy strategy
A strategy is a combination of criteria and procedures which allow decisions to be taken in order to achieve a monetary policy objective. This decision-making process can be based on inflation forecasts which depend on the behaviour of a relevant monetary variable or, more simply, on the "pegging" of exchange rates to a stable currency. This last strategy is ideal for more open economies, encompassed by a specific monetary zone, such as, for instance, the Netherlands and Germany. However, this would not be suitable for a much larger but relatively closed economic space such as the euro area.
I believe that it is a mistake to try to exaggerate the polarity of the inflation strategy and the monetary strategy. These are quite clearly separate strategies but they are not in any way opposed, incompatible or irreconcilable. Certainly, some aspects of each of these strategies should be combined, resulting in another, completely separate and valid strategy. This is what the ECB has done and it now needs to give the end product a name which does not merely describe the desired objective ("the stability-orientated monetary policy strategy").
There are two components to the ECB's monetary policy strategy. The first, more practical and visible component consists in a quantitative reference to the growth of the money supply as defined by the broad M3 aggregate. Taking into account the quantitative definition of stability, economic growth and realistic hypotheses on money circulation rates, this monetary reference has initially been set at 4 1/2%.
The second component of the ECB's monetary strategy, a more general and enveloping one, is the estimation of inflation forecasts and risks for price stability in view of changes in a group of significant variables, all of which are related to the euro area as a whole. Some examples of these significant variables are credit, long-term interest rates, prices of raw materials, import prices, wages and public spending deficits.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When the rate at which the money supply grows is greater than the nominal potential rate of growth of an economy, in the medium term this will generate inflation. In other words, the medium-term inflation rate is indicative of excessive monetary expansion in relation to economic growth. Growth in the money supply therefore provides the best early warning of inflation and monetary control is the best monetary policy strategy. The virtues of the first component of the ECB monetary strategy are, when all is said and done, well known. If it worked, this alone would be sufficient.
In practice, however, things are never so simple. Inflation forecasting and control cannot rely solely on a monetary aggregate because of doubts as to whether or not this monetary aggregate can be controlled and is stable and meaningful. If a narrow definition of money, such as M1, is adopted, controllability can be achieved in that, through the monetary policy instrument, it is possible to have a greater impact on its evolution, but this is offset by the loss of stability and significance. If it is decided to opt for a broad monetary aggregate, such as M3 or M4, the money demand function becomes more stable and clearly more significant, in that a greater correlation can be achieved between exchange rates, providing a better explanation of changes in nominal costs and inflation, in return for some loss of control. Despite this, doubts persist. In practice, these will, of course, increase when national currencies are replaced with the euro; then the need for the second part of the monetary policy strategy will become obvious.
The ESCB monetary policy tool
The wide range of instruments available to the ESCB for the implementation of the euro area monetary policy has been established with reference to two fundamental criteria: efficiency and neutrality. These instruments can be separated into three categories, related to open market operations, standing facilities and minimum reserves.
The ESCB's instruments and procedures do not differ significantly from those traditionally used by the Banco de Espaсa and with which you are all familiar. This means that I only need to highlight a few differences. In addition, I should add that over recent weeks the Banco de Espaсa has introduced changes aimed at facilitating a smooth transition.
With regard to open market operations, the frequency and maturity of the main re-financing operation has become that of a weekly auction of loans with a maturity of two weeks, and an interest rate which is either announced in advance (fixed rate auction) or announced later as the result of offers received (variable rate auction). There will also be monthly auctions for three-month loans which will always be of the variable rate type in order to avoid sending signals to the market. Fine-tuning will be carried out in exceptional circumstances between two regular auctions and, finally, the structural liquidity demand can be influenced by means of open market transactions which consist in the direct purchase and sale of securities or the issuance of debt certificates.
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