Реферат: Европейская денежная система
With regard to the broadly based assessment of the outlook for price developments and the risks to price stability in the euro area, monetary and financial developments can be seen to indicate a favourable assessment of the latest monetary policy decisions of the Eurosystem. They indicate that market participants expect a continuation of the environment of price stability. Long-term rates fell to new historical lows at the beginning of 1999 and there was an overall downward shift in the yield curve. Therefore, financing conditions for investment are currently exceptionally favourable.
At present the growth prospects for the euro area are, however, still marked by the uncertainties relating to the development of the world economy in 1999. These uncertainties have had a negative impact on indicators of the economic climate in the euro area. There are widespread expectations of an economic slowdown in the near future. This deterioration in the external economic environment can be linked, above all, to the financial crises in Asia, Russia and Latin America. However, there is a mixed picture. While the growth rate for industrial production fell up to November 1998, retail sales figures and consumer confidence have recently shown positive trends. Furthermore, growth in real gross domestic product in the euro area was relatively robust in the third quarter of 1998. In the United States real growth in the fourth quarter actually turned out higher than expected. Measured against the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the HICP, consumer prices in the euro area rose by 0.8% in December 1998. This is a tenth of a percentage point lower than in November. This development is in line with earlier trends. It can be linked, in particular, to a further decline in energy prices and a weakening in price increases in industrial goods.
All in all, the above-mentioned economic development and the available forecasts for 1999 do not indicate any noticeable upward or downward pressure on prices. Potential upward risks could arise from a change in the external global economic situation and any associated effects on the euro area, via import and producer prices. These developments must be carefully monitored. There is concern that inflationary pressure might develop in the event of a strong increase in wage prices and an easing of fiscal policy. Developments in the exchange rate will also be closely monitored in view of their significance for price developments.
Finally, let me emphasise that the current level of real interest rates is exceptionally low. If real interest rates are taken simply as the difference between nominal rates and the current increase in consumer prices (HICP), short-term real interest rates in January 1999 stood at 2.3%, i.e. around 80 basis points lower than one year ago. Long-term real rates have fallen even more, by 110 basis points, and stood at 3% in January. These levels are very low, both compared with other countries and with historical data. In line with the safe-guarding of price stability, the current monetary and financial conditions thus clearly support future economic growth. Monetary policy can do no more than this without jeopardising the great overall economic advantages of price stability and its own credibility.
Real structural reforms which increase the flexibility of the labour markets, as well as a continuation of the moderate increase in wage prices, would not only ease the burden on monetary policy but would also support employment growth. This will be all the more true if the deterioration in the economic situation this year is worse than expected owing to the negative aspects of the external economic environment.
The statistical requirements of the ESCB
Speech delivered by Eugenio Domingo Solans,
Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
on the occasion of a visit to the Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
Luxembourg, 25 March 1999
The booklet introducing statistical requirements for Stage Three, which the EMI published in July 1996, began with the bold statement: "Nothing is more important for the conduct of monetary policy than good statistics." These challenging words show the importance which the EMI attached to this area of preparations for Monetary Union, and I must say this has been fully justified by our experience in the first few weeks of the life of the euro.
The statement of requirements
But let me start back in 1996. Because of the time it takes to implement statistical changes in reporting institutions and central banks, a statement of prospective statistical requirements could be delayed no longer. But that statement had to be made with very imperfect knowledge. Nobody knew at that stage (for example) what definitions of monetary aggregates would be chosen for the single currency area, or what their role would be. Given the differences in financial structures in our countries, it was not clear how to identify the financial institutions from whose liabilities the money stock would be compiled. It was decided to define them in functional terms, and in such a way that money-market funds as well as banks of the traditional type would be included. It was not clear at that stage whether minimum reserves would be applied, and, if they were, what form they would take - although it had been decided that the banking statistics data would provide the basis for any such system. Implementation had to start quickly for the statistics to be ready in time for a Monetary Union starting in 1999, but no one knew which Member States would adopt the single currency - though it was clear that the distinction between business inside and outside the euro area, would be of critical importance for monetary and balance of payments statistics, and would have to be planned for in statistical systems.
In mentioning monetary and balance of payments statistics, I do not want to suggest that the statistical requirements set out in 1996 were confined to these areas. On the contrary, they covered a wide range of financial and economic data, including financial accounts, prices and costs - relating directly to the ESCB's main responsibility under the Treaty, namely to maintain price stability - government finance data, national accounts, labour market statistics, production and trade data and other conjunctural statistics, and more besides. These areas are, or course, under Eurostat's responsibility.
The focus on the euro area as a whole
In formulating and implementing statistical requirements, it was important to realise that the ESCB's attention would have to focus on the euro area as a whole. Monetary policy cannot discriminate among different areas of the Monetary Union - although in practice it may have different effects because of different national economic and financial structures. Focus on the area as a whole has important implications. The data must be sufficiently comparable for sensible aggregation; they must also be available to a comparable timeliness and to the same frequency. In some cases (monetary and balance of payments statistics) they had to be available in a form permitting appropriate consolidation. In short, with a few exceptions, it was realised that adding together existing national data would not be adequate. Important initiatives were already under way, such as the adoption of a new European System of Accounts [ESA95] and the implementation at national level of a new IMF Balance of Payments Manual. However, wide-ranging statistical preparations would be necessary for the ECB to have the sort of statistical information that the national central banks have traditionally used in conducting monetary policy.
How far the provision meets the current need
I arrived at the ECB about 2 years after these requirements had been released and 7 months before the start of Monetary Union. I must confess that I doubted many times in those early weeks whether statistics could be ready in time to sustain monetary policy decisions. There were anxious moments too in the late stages of finalising the monetary policy strategy: would the requirements set out in 1996 correspond to the need perceived in autumn 1998?
I am now sure that the decisions made in 1996 were correct. In practice, one choice in autumn 1998 was almost automatic: thanks to the work of Eurostat and the national statistical offices in the context of the convergence criteria (with active involvement of the EMI), there was no plausible rival to the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the purpose of defining price stability. I am aware that national consumer price indices are sometimes criticised for overstating inflation, because they take insufficient account of quality improvements and use outdated weights. While further development of the HICP is to come, and at present there is no satisfactory treatment of expenditure on housing, I believe that every effort has been made to apply the lessons from experience with national consumer price measures. The other choices for statistical elements in the strategy were less obvious. In fact the banking statistics reporting structure announced in 1996 proved able to provide the monetary aggregates and the counterpart analysis required, and - with a little fine-tuning - to meet the needs of a statistical basis for reserve requirements, details of which were also finalised in the autumn. We were thus able to begin publishing monetary statistics only a few days after the final decisions were taken (at the Council meeting on 1 December), and were able to publish with some estimation last month back data on the three monetary aggregates monthly to 1980, and a note urging caution on users of the earlier data.
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