Реферат: Европейская денежная система
In fact, the experience of the first few months of the life of the euro seems to indicate that such a positive development may already be under way. In the first quarter of 1999, bonds denominated in euro accounted for around 50% of the bonds issued internationally. This share is considerably higher than the traditional aggregate share for bonds denominated in the constituent currencies, which had been in the range of 20% to 30% in recent years. We have also seen a considerable increase in the average size of bond issues denominated in euro, as compared with those of bonds denominated in the former currencies, which may indicate that the trade in euro-denominated issues is likely to become increasingly liquid.
Despite the recent developments in the euro area capital markets, euro area companies are still mainly dependent on financing through the banking system. Hence, there is still plenty of scope for further development in the area of corporate financing. For example, the amount of private bonds traded in the euro area is still very low compared with the United States. The market capitalisation of equities is considerably lower in most euro area countries as compared with the United States and the United Kingdom. Likewise, the venture capital business in the euro area is still in its infancy compared with the relatively mature venture capital markets in the United States and the United Kingdom. Personally, I am convinced that the introduction of the euro will also be helpful to the development of these segments of the financial markets.
In this context, I should like to say a few words on how the introduction of the euro may underpin the reshaping of the European banking sector. The increased scope for securitisation will put pressure on the European banking sector to move away from traditional retail banking activities in favour of more advanced financial services. The European banking industry is still segmented into relatively small national markets. The introduction of the euro is likely to add momentum to cross-border integration in the European banking sector. Although a considerable consolidation of the European banking sector has taken place over the last decade, this consolidation has so far been almost exclusively based on mergers and acquisitions within national borders. It is only recently that we have also started to see such deals taking place across national borders.
I welcome this trend towards an expansion beyond national borders with open arms, since the establishment of truly pan-European - and global - banking groups will be instrumental in efforts to enhance competition in the provision of financial services.
5. The Eurosystem and the equity markets
I should like to conclude my presentation today by briefly discussing about the euro area equity markets as seen from the perspective of the Eurosystem. It is clear that the Eurosystem has no direct control or influence over the development of equity markets. However, the Eurosystem acknowledges the importance of well-functioning and efficient equity markets for the economy as a means of mobilising savings into productive investment. Hence, efficient equity markets with transparent price formation, high market liquidity and low transaction costs are of great value in the capital formation process.
The existence of efficient equity markets should also reduce the risk of the emergence of asset price bubbles, which is desirable from a monetary policy perspective. Prior to the emergence of asset price bubbles in some industrialised countries in the early 1990s, few central banks paid much attention to the development of prices of equities or other assets in their monetary policy formulation.
However, the effects of the bubble economies in the early 1990s, notably in Japan, the United Kingdom and Scandinavia, led to an intense debate among economists on how monetary policy could have responded better to the situation. Some research was carried out in order to establish price indexes that would incorporate asset prices and which could be used as target variables or indicators within the monetary policy framework. However, no central bank is explicitly making use of such asset price-weighted indexes in monetary policy formulation. Nevertheless, this development in the early 1990s made most central banks aware of the fact that large swings in asset prices can have important effects the price formation in the economy through its implications on real economic developments and, in particular, financial market stability.
However, in practice it is not easy to let monetary policy actions respond to asset price developments. Central banks have only one tool for the implementation of monetary policy - the short-term interest rate. They can therefore not effectively try to achieve several objectives at the same time. It is also difficult to judge how developments in asset prices actually feed into consumer prices, thereby making it tricky to assess the need for the appropriate monetary policy response to their changes. This difficulty is exacerbated by the rather high volatility of certain asset prices, such as equities, which could result in frequent changes in policy interest rates if the central bank were to incorporate them mechanistically into its reaction function.
In this respect, the present situation in the United States, as well as in several European countries, is interesting: equity prices have risen rapidly for an extended period but consumer prices remain very subdued and there are, so far, no signs that there is going to be a spill-over from asset price developments into consumer price inflation.
Against the background of the rather unclear relationship between asset price developments and consumer price inflation, the development of equity prices does not have a prominent role in the formulation of the Eurosystem's monetary policy. This notwithstanding, the Eurosystem closely monitors the prices of equities and other assets within its broadly based assessment of economic developments in the euro area, which forms the second pillar of its monetary policy strategy. The Eurosystem will therefore remain vigilant in order to detect any influence from asset prices, through their impact on real economic developments and financial market stability, on the formation of consumer prices.
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THE MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Speech by Eugenio Domingo Solans
Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
during the "Working Breakfast" at the Permanent Seminar
on 4 December 1998 in Madrid
Introduction
It was with immense pleasure that I accepted the invitation to take part in this event, organised by Euroforum. In view of the prestigious nature of Euroforum, the professional standing of its President, Eduardo Bueno, Professor at the Universidad Autуnoma de Madrid and consultant to the Banco de Espaсa (there is a great deal of similarity between our respective professional histories) and, above all, the value I have attached to his friendship over the past thirty years, there was no question as to whether to agree to join you for this working breakfast.
I have been asked to keep my presentation brief in order to allow as much time as possible for discussion. Therefore I will try to put forward a few ideas on the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) which I can develop during subsequent discussions. During the discussion period please feel free to raise any questions on other aspects of the ECB's operations.
The three fundamental principles underlying the monetary policy
As in the case of any other central bank, the ECB's monetary policy is based on three fundamental principles: setting the objectives to be achieved, establishing the most appropriate strategy for accomplishing these objectives and, finally, selecting the best instruments for implementing its chosen strategy.
While the Governing Council of the ECB is responsible for formulating its monetary policy, both the Executive Board of the ECB and the national central banks are involved in its application and therefore this constitutes one of the tasks allotted to the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) as a whole.
Objectives, strategies and instruments therefore form the three main elements which enable us to establish the precise point within the range of monetary policy possibilities which should constitute the ECB's policy: its precise altitude, longitude and depth.
The ECB's monetary policy objectives
We did not have to think long and hard to define the ECB's monetary policy objectives and, generally speaking, those of the ESCB. This had been done for us by the Treaty on European Union in which, under Article 105, it is stated that "the primary objective of the ESCB shall be to maintain price stability" which, on a more practical level, the ECB has defined as a year-on-year increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2%, which it seeks to maintain in the medium term. "Without prejudice to the objective of price stability", continues the aforementioned Article 105 of the Treaty, "the ESCB shall support the general economic policies in the Community with a view to contributing to the achievement of the objectives of the Community as laid down in Article 2".
If you refer to the aforementioned Article 2 of the so-called Treaty of Maastricht, you will find that sustainable and non-inflationary growth, together with a high level of employment and social protection, are among its aims.
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